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This Sunday, the Central African Republic will conduct a significant series of four votes, including the presidential race, national assembly, and municipal positions.

A Crowded Race for the Presidency

Seven candidates are vying for the top office, including ex-premiers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to run by the constitutional court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra briefly served under the current president.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition hopes to capitalize on widespread discontent in a country where violence remains a daily reality. More than half a million people are displaced within their own country, with a comparable figure living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an opportunity to commend the significant progress of the nation," noted a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges remain.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is largely predicted to secure another term. He first entered politics in 2008 when appointed prime minister, serving until a insurgent alliance overthrew the government in 2013, triggering a civil war.

After a turbulent transition period, his perceived impartiality from the warring factions fueled his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Voting Challenges

Concerns persist that supply-chain issues and insecurity could disrupt the electoral process, especially in the countryside. The UN stabilization force, Minusca, is offering protection and organizational aid that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Further issues involve the electoral roll being made available only digitally, a major hurdle in a nation with limited internet access. These issues have led to an electoral boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "exclude many of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens worry that another term for Touadéra—made possible by a 2023 constitutional referendum that abolished term limits and extended mandates—would entail greater influence for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the private military group Wagner for his protection, and despite its founder's death, has resisted calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has taken a separate strategy, focusing on business ventures within CAR.

Allegations of Asset Sales

Allegations have claimed the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to make way for a Rwandan livestock operation. A critical commentary accused the leadership of being "intent on sell off the country bit by bit."

Despite a newly signed agreement with armed factions offering hope of stabilization, the election proceeds under a cloud of uncertainty and geopolitical rivalry.