Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
